outlook for 09-19-2011

Not a certainty, but it appears we may have set a top Friday morning as the patterns suggested we might.  If so then next week will probably be a down week.  Let's face it - the market was up about 5% last week and there is no way that can continue longer term because 5% a week long term would be 250% a year.

I am trying to determine exactly how I need to adjust the placement of cycles on my charts.  For now though it appears the 11.2TD cycle in this sideways market is providing most of the market movement (up one week, down the next week).  The 5.6TD cycle seems also to be contributing.  The longer 22TD cycle and 34TD cycle seem almost dormant at this time as we move sideways with sizable weekly swings. 

A couple of things on my radar.  Thursday according to the spiral calendar ( http://spiraldates.com/?p=832 ) should have been a directional change day.  T-Theory is projecting a low end of  the first week of October  ( http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4511625 ) which would work out with the cycle patterns if we are down next week and then up into the first week of October (11.2TD cycle span).  Finally, I noticed the CCI on the SPX exceeded +100 which usually indicates a top (sell) on Friday.

Here is the SPX swing cycles (I have moved some cycles around - not certain so I may have to make more changes later as data becomes available):

GL traders.  If next week continues up I may be hosed on my QID and RWM holdings.