10-2011 outlook for October

According to Droke the 6 year cycle tops in October and we should see impact on the market.  The Kitchin cycle (42 months - also known as the inventory cycle  - see David Knox Barker) should have topped some months ago and probably accounts for some of the market weakness we have seen since April.  Read the article references I recently posted for more on their views. 

The 9 month cycle topped  in August and is down. The Wall cycle should top mid October and turn down.  So we have the 6 year cycle topping and turning down.  The Kitchin cycle is down.  The 9 month cycle is down.  The Wall cycle will turn down by mid October.  So the longer cycles should exert some downside pressure during October.  That is the big picture:

Of course, we are more interested in shorter cycles we can swing trade.    The 11.2TD cycle should bottom around Oct 7.  Then we should have 34 and 11.2TD cycle topping together around  mid October.  Finally we should have the 22TD cycle and 11.2TD cycle should bottoming together around  Oct 24.  So we want to be short the first week of Oct, then long for about 6 days and then short into the Oct 24 time frame.  Here is the SPX with these cycles:

Keep in mind if the longer cycles provide the expected downside pressure the S&P should break below 1100 in October, but unlike some I do not expect we will see a huge drop below that level yet.  Let's say 1030?
Good luck traders.  I hope Oct is a good trading month.