Selasa, 29 November 2011

11-29-2011 outlook

I mentioned in my last outlook that markets never go in one direction for extended periods (more than a few days).  The market had over shot to the downside and we got an extreme pop to the upside.  This did a lot to correct the market level and should allow the market/cycles to complete their bottoming process by the end of the week.  It appears that process should complete by Friday Dec 2.  As I mentioned - in the near term we had limited downside potential to fulfill that bottom.   NOTE: my estimate is the 20 week Wall cycle should not bottom until Dec 9 or a little later and could result in a lower low and will at least retard any upside the first full week of December.

The 22.5TD cycle (and related shorter cycles) should bottom this week.  The bias should remain to the downside, but the up cycles and downside continue to offset each other today.  So any move up or down should be relatively small (+/- 10 points) IMO.

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):
 

GL traders.  Do your own analysis, I could be wrong.

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