11-10-2011 outlook

Today was unexpected based on a single day's projections.  If we had taken a longer term view - should it have been though?  Look at the 34TD cycle.  It should incorporate all the movement of cycles less than 34TDs.  Counting today it has been down 9 days.  At an average of 6.25 points a day that is about 56 points of downside potential.  From the prior peak that would put the market around 1236.  Based on this a big down day was baked in (just a matter of when).  Of course, we overshot even that.  With that overshoot  we may be set up for an up day.  Question is when?  You miss a single data point like this and your projections are apt to miss at some point.  At this time we have about 7 points of upside baked in (1236 - 1229) at the open (about 1 point at day's end :  1236 - 6.25 - 1229).  So keep this in mind as we proceed forward.

Tomorrow the  34TD cycle is down, the 11.2TD cycle is down.  The 22TD cycle is up and the 5.6TD cycle is up.  The 2.8TD cycle should bottom before noon and add a point or so to the upside.  Based on this tomorrow is projected to be up almost 12 points (which would put us above the 34TD average for 10 days down of -62.5 point to around 1230).

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.