11-18-2011 outlook

Last evening I suggested we would see some downside today, even substantial downside: "So I conclude we could have a flat day, but expect some (maybe more than some) downside. ".  Today did a lot to bring the S&P level more in line with what would be expected if we met the daily average decline for the 34TD cycle (6 x 15 down days = -90 points or S&P of ~ 1602). 

We still have some downside potential if the 34TD cycle is to meet its projected amplitude on the downside - say under 1200.  The 22TD cycle is also down and seems to be gaining dominance.  The 2.8TD cycle has turned up - so the sum of the DPOs is up.  Tomorrow is also OPEX so we could see the market on both sides of unchanged and I would not be surprised to see 1200 low and 1230 high tomorrow (close red?). Might be a good day for a day trade or two?

Here is the SPX swing cycles (my interpretation):

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and be careful.