What the cycle analysts are saying - part 2

Update June 13 2011:  http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/the-five-stages-of-the-kress-cycle-tsunami

Original post Mar 29 2011

Tonight we look at another cycle analyst - Cliff Drokes.

Drokes generally (not that I have come across) does not focus on the shorter cycles that I would call "swing trade" cycles. Still he is a frequent contributor of online articles covering cycles. Drokes is a follower of the Kress cycles (named after Samuel Kress - member of the Kress family that founded Kmart and its predecessor).

Drokes says of the yearly cycles the ones of consequence are: the 2 year, the 6 year, the 10 year and 30 year. He claims all other cycles are derivatives of these cycles. For example the 4 year is really 2 of the 2 year cycles. Or the 60 year K-Wave is 2 of the 30 year cycles. Specifically he says "The other cycles can be chalked up to merely the products of the "Rule of Alternation" or to a composite of the four cycles under discussion.".
 http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/droke021511.html

He says -

• The 12 year cycle bottomed hard in 2002 (2 X 6 year cycles?). So I think we can assume a 6 year cycle topped in 2005 and bottomed in 2008, will top in 2011 and bottom in 2014.
• The 10 year cycle bottomed in 2004 (other analysts say 1982, 1992, 2002 were 10 year cycle bottoms). In that case it should top in 2009 and bottom in 2014.
• The 6 year cycle peaks later this year (implies a bottom in 2008 - [he says later 2008] and another bottom in 2014). See 12 year cycle above.
• As I recall Drokes claimed the 4 year cycle should bottom last Sept/Oct. Of course the 4 year cycle is really 2 X 2 year cycles - so we should see a 2 year top this fall around Sept/Oct and a bottom in Sept/Oct of 2012.

He also discusses the 30 year Super Cycle, the 60 year K-Wave cycle, and the 120 year Grand Super Cycle which should bottom in 2014.

First let's look at the long cycles (idealized) projecting a bottom in 2014:

Next let's look at the less long cycles:

I believe Drokes analysis is better suited to the investor who holds longer term whereas I look at shorter cycles better suited for the trader.

GL traders.  I hope you find this information helpful.