Comments and outlook for 06-29-2011

Strike two!!  OK, not a swing and a miss - more like a foul ball.  I talked about the 22TD cycle last evening and how it was hard up, but thought maybe it would lose some of its upward "mo".  It didn't.

So let's try again.  Tomorrow the 22TD cycle should top by EOD or early the following day and as it is topping it should lose its ramp up momentum.  We have the 22TD cycle up and topping toward the end of the day tomorrow. We have the 11.2TD, 5.6TD, and 2.8TD cycles down and bottoming toward the end of the day (or early the next day).  This should limit the upside for the 22TD cycle.  There are a cluster of tops 1298-1299 so I am expecting this may provide upside resistance and limit any upside tomorrow.  We may see 1300, but I doubt we approach the next FIB at 1310.30.  WARNING: I could be off by 2-4 hours in regards to the top.

In addition to the 3 shorter cycles being down we have the 20 week (Wall) cycle down and the 1 year cycle ready to bottom in early July.  Given this setup I do not see how there is a lot of upside left before we reverse to the down side as soon we will have the 22TD, and the 20week cycles down and the 1 year cycle bottoming...  So tomorrow I expect very moderate upside, but possibly red by EOD.

Here is the SPY visual:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.