The week just finished was much as projected. My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week - as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed). So I expect a hard push down Mon and Tue to a low. I have a target of the 1300-1310 as a low.
Take a look:
Taking a longer view, you need to be very aware we are in a period of time that could be a pivot for a substantial pullback. The 20 week (Wall cycle) should top the week of May 21. Also we are at a point where the down leg of the 1 year cycle should start having dominant influence. So any bounce off the bottom next week is apt to be muted and short lived.
I collected some Fibonacci ratios going back to the early 1980s to highlight the potential targets. It is my opinion that we see a substantial pullback into July starting as soon as next week or the week of 05-23. Looking at cycle amplitudes for the 1 year and 20 week (Wall) cycles I believe the downside target is around 1100 by sometime in July. How does this mesh with the Fibonaccis? Here is a table:
The Fibs downside target that best fits my projections is 1095. If I am wrong and the market continues up the next target is around 1443. Here is a weekly chart of the SnP 500 showing my projections:
As you can see my target area covers the FIB 1095 projection. As always - do your own analysis. I like the confirmation between the cycle amplitude and FIB projections.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar