comments and outlook for 05-19-2011

What can I say?  My expectations for today were completely off base.  Of course I have to sheepishly admit I did tell you in my outlook for the week the following:  "My expectations for the coming week is that the 22TD cycle (and other shorter cycles will bottom mid week - as early as Tue close, but more likely sometime Wed)."    I believe that is what happened - the market bottomed Tuesday.  I have stated in the past that turning points can be tricky to call exactly.

So, it is my opinion now we saw a low yesterday.  I could try and make the argument that today was an aberration, but that would be ignoring the evidence.  If I have learned one thing over the years - don't argue with the data in front of you - you will lose the argument.  Besides I am trying to interpret the data not dictate market movement.

Fortunately, I had anticipated this and had a chart all prepared (just had to plug in today's data):

I will try and expand the chart to better show some future dates and post it later.  GL traders.  Today was a perfect example of why you should consider using stops. Do your own analysis

Update 06:37 EDT  - It appears tomorrow should be up.  May get some pullback toward the end of the day.  Here is an expanded chart: