What the cycle analysts are saying - summary

Four cycle experts and they all have their favorite combinations of cycles. What is a person think?. We should not be surprised as there are many, many cycles and untold combinations. I tend to like the Wall cycle (Barker) and Kitchin cycle (Barker and Ferrera) and 10 year cycle (Ferrera, Drokes).

They don't always agree about the positioning of the cycles either. Drokes has the 10 year cycle as bottoming in 2004, whereas Ferrera has it bottoming in 2002 (projecting the next bottom in 2012 or 2014). All the analysts other than Curry and Barker tend to focus on cycles longer than 1 year. Barker covers the Wall (20 week) cycle. Curry covers the 45 trading day cycle (10 weeks?) and the 90 trading day cycle (18-20 weeks).

That leaves a niche of 20 weeks or shorter which is where I tend to focus most of my analysis as this is the time span that probably most interests swing traders (and day traders). I believe I have identified (and often use) the 20 week cycle (100 trading days or 4.5 months), the 33 trading days or 1 1/2 month cycle, the 11.2 trading days or 1/2 month cycle.

In deference to day traders I also look at the 5.6 trading day cycle (1/4 a month) and the 2.8 trading day cycle (1/8 of a month). I am not opposed to using a 45 trading day cycle (10 weeks) if the data suggests that is the cycle currently in dominance. I try to adjust as the data suggests I should as cycles fade (amplitude decays) or come to the forefront (amplitude expands).

I try to cover some of the longer cycles every month or so to give you a look at the overall environment in which these shorter cycles are functioning - as we should not ignore the big picture. So I am not in competition with these analysts (and their conclusions), but I believe I extend their analysis into the shorter cycle arena.

Additional cycle information (some mathematical relationships):

Gann liked 360 and factors of 360 (270, 135, 90,45, etc) as cycle lengths. These are the basis of Jim Curry's analysis (also described by JM Hurst).

• 45 calendar days = (45 - 12.85 weekend days) is 32.15 trading days
• Note: 46 calendar days works better.  One month avg = 30.4 days. so 1.5 months is 45.6 days.  12 (months)/1.5 = 8 periods per year.  8 x 45.6 = 364.8 days (1 year). So 1 year is 2 and 2/3  Wall cycles. 
• 92 calendar days (2 x 46) is about 66TDs, and 3 calendar months (92 / 30.4 = 3.02 months)
• 138 calendar days (3 x 46) = 4.5 months (138/30.4 = 4.53 mths)
• 138/7 = 19.7 weeks. 138 - 19.7 x 2 = 98.6 TDs (approx. 3 X 33 TDs)

I would suggest Curry with minor modifications to his described cycle lengths is on the same  wave length as the other analysts


 Finally -  just for the heck of it (everybody seems to be pretty much in agreement on the longer cycles) let's consider one more cycle - the PI cycle. 

 Definitions:

• PI cycle = 3,142 calendar days.
• Kitchin cycle = 40.68 months
• Wall cycle = 20 weeks (100 trading days) 

PI = 3142 days
    = 8.61 years (8.61/ 3.39 = 2.54
    = 103 months (103/40.68 = 2.54
    = 448 weeks (448/20 =22.38 ~ 22 Wall cycles (22/9 =2.50 Kitchin cycles)

Conclusions:

1 PI cycle = 2.5 Kitchin cycle
1 Kitchin cycle = 9 Wall cycles
9 Month cycle = 2 Wall cycles
1 Kitchin cycle = 4.5 X 9 month cycles
3 Kitchin Cycles = 123 months ~ 10 year cycle



As you can see there are mathematical relationships between all these cycle.... There seems to be a mathematical order to cycles. This by no means covers all cycles. For Example: a Super cycle is 30 years or 3 x 10 year cycle (or 9 Kitchin cycles). Some claim there is a 17 year cycle (which is approximately 2 PI cycles). Just something to think about.,,,