Rabu, 16 Maret 2011

Comments and outlook 03-17

Another interesting day.  I told you over the weekend that news may override cycles.  Well, we saw it again today.  It wasn't even current news.  Evidently the EU energy minister said last night that the situation in Japan was out of control.  Duh!!!  You knew that, but when it hit the wires during the day (as if it were new news) the market dropped like a stone.  It made a couple of feeble attempts to rally, but the damage had been done and the day closed down.  So I will repeat:  NEWS CAN OVERRIDE THE CYCLES.  Until the situation with the nuclear plants in Japan is resolved (successfully we hope)  the market will be on edge and drop at the slightest excuse.

Still, I get a sense something more is going on.  My guess is that the longer cycles are starting to build some down side momentum.  If that is the case it could be a long spring/summer for the bulls.  I will be on watch for more clues of this.  If you see/read anything relevant, please share it.

We start the day with the two shorter cycles down, so we may get a test of today's lows in the morning.  They bottom during the day giving us 4 shorter cycles up by the end of the day.  So I would expect some recovery later in the day.

Here is the picture:

GL traders.  If you have longs left in your portfolio your stops were a lot looser than mine.  Also, my inverses are almost all gone from my portfolio.  So I am hoping for a "pop" sometime tomorrow to reload my inverses.

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