11-27 cycles updated for December

On Nov 13 I told you:

"As a dominant cycle reaches a top it exerts less effect as it starts to flatten out before turning down. This means less influence on the direction of the market. It also implies that the shorter cycles should exert more influence and a larger effect on market movement. So instead of day after day after day of the market moving up with a rare down day thrown in you get fewer up days and more down days. This makes for a better short term trading environment, but it also makes timing moves trickier. You get increased volatility both up and down.

As the topping process progresses you start to get more down days than up days. Just realize though the topping process for a longer cycles can be several days (2-3 weeks or more). In other words longer cycles have a longer turn radius than short cycles so we should not expect a sharp sell off the day after a long cycle tops, but a slow start that gains downside momentum over time."    Check.

Last week end I told you:

"So I expect the first part of the week to show some weakness (maybe test the 1173 area) and then a Thanksgiving rally to start. In other words the week should be choppy with little movement by the end of the week."    Check.

Mid week I told you:

"There may be a chance for a short term trade on the long side if we have the market opening down tomorrow morning. I view it as a fairly high risk trade and suggest if you take the trade you be careful and don't get greedy....."   Check.

I know, what am I going to do for you now!!!  I'll give it my best shot.  I believe we are in a confirmed down trend and next week will be choppy as we have one shorter cycle topping and 2 bottoming.    When the week is over I expect the week to be lower by Friday's close than the close this week (with a better than 50% chance we break below the recent 1173 lows during the week). 

I also wanted to give you a longer view for the month of December.  The market will remain choppy with a downward bias the first 2 weeks of December.  The cycles align to the downside and we could get a more substantial sell down the second half of December.  The "selloff" that stole Christmas?

Here is the SPY (with my December projections):