09-23-2011

We were down for the day on 09-22 and down hard.  But what does tomorrow bring?  It appears to me the 11.2TD cycle should bottom tomorrow by mid day.  At the same time we have the shorter 2.8TD cycle and 5.6TD cycle topping and turning down.

So IMO we should show weakness earlier and may recover ground in the afternoon.  We may see 1100 on the S&P and reverse.  IMO that is the probable scenario.  So intra-day volatility but not a lot of change by the end of the day.

Here is the SPX and the shorter swing cycles:

GL traders.  Comments and views are welcome.

09-23 buy the dip or not?

We always have to answer this question don't we?  Longer term I am fairly negative, but we are looking for a swing trade - not a long term relationship.  So I look at the cycles (and other TA indicators) for answers.

So I looked:

1) the 11.2TD cycle which appears to be dominant should bottom by mid day tomorrow (buy the cycle bottom).
2) the CCI has now moved below -100 (usually a place to buy).
3) The lower envelope line crossed (a buy signal).

The weight of the TA says tomorrow (Friday) may be the time to buy.  Here is the SPX  showing the points mentioned above:

GL traders.  If you have indicators that agree or disagree please share.

09-22 Droke updates info from Kress

Mr. Kress believes that for a more practical contemporary evaluation, the 6-year secondary direction cycle is more effective. He writes, "The 6-year peaked in early May at the height of our 'debt crisis,' a continuing indication of the systemic problems. Historically, the peak of the second 6-year is higher than the peak of the 12-year. However, May's 6-year [price] peak is significantly below the 12-year cycle's peak." He adds that the declining Mega Cycle of 120 years is clearly taking its toll.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/22624/crisis-high-2011-and-the-next-credit-crash

09-22-2011

The market was down and down more than I expected....  Not much doubt in my mind the bias is now down for the next 3-4 days.

Tomorrow we have the 2.8TD cycle up and the 5.6TD cycle up.  The 11.2TD cycle is down.  By now this 11.2TD cycle should be accelerating into its maximum downside momentum.  So even though the 2 shorter cycles are up the best case for the bulls IMO is a flat day tomorrow, but I believe it could easily be down 10 S&P points.

Here is the SPX showing these short swing cycles:

GL traders,  My RWM position looking good, QID position is lagging.

Did you miss these sell signals?

1. On Friday the CCI broke above +100 (I believe I mentioned this as being on my radar)
2. The upper EMA envelope lines met (or crossed) - sell signal
3. The MFI projected top time was achieved (top, bottom, projected top)

Maybe you have others you would like to share.

Her is a SPX chart showing these signals and a projection of the downside:

With 3 signals (that I have found to be fairly reliable) occurring together there should have been little doubt as to the market direction.  GL traders - do your own research and share.

09-21-2011

Well today was flat....  As I mentioned a couple of times last week it seems the shorter cycles are dominant (for the time being).  That continues - Friday's early  S&P 1220 level to today's top (around 1220) was the top-to-top of a 2.8TD cycle I believe.

Trying to figure the best way to show the positioning of these cycles on a chart.  So the 2.8TD cycle is now down.  I believe the 11.2TD cycle and 5.6TD cycles topped Friday morning.  The 11.2TD cycle is down while the 5.6TD cycle has bottomed (or is near a bottom) and is turning up.  With this alignment tomorrow should be down.  Given recent volatility that could be 15-25 points on the S&P.

Here is the SPX showing these short swing cycles:

GL traders....  all is a bit confusing currently - maybe we get a clearer picture soon.

09-20-2011

Yesterday was down (suspected it would be).  Today looks like it could go either way as cycles are turning, possibly a flatish day.