energy watch 03-04

If you were on a desert island and all you had to look at was a chart of ag index prices ( https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyfYTlUshoFjDeg4p5gJNuJdLcHhSOe19d-LxgvHStaHYEzCCT1DG5BiXHH9J68AmEMvvW1_6UNyegDiB63OXUT4I7YlLqmntioWM6A5wC9rBmy_uQhQQFqs89CNyFxagKRInW9NAwnGjW/s1600/0303rja.PNG  ) and energy you might guess there was inflation.  Of course, we know that is not true - the government tells us so.

What we do know is there has been inflation of these indexes.  Of course it appears we may be in for a temporary reprieve and get a short term pullback in these.  Take a look at energy:

Gl traders.  Do your own analysis.

Bank watch 03-02

The regional banks are down around 10% while the S&P is down around 3%.  Quite a difference, but such divergence can create opportunities.  A well capitalized bank that showed profits every quarter in the bank meltdown 2008-2010 is BBT.  It is down from a peak around $29.50 to around $27.02.  I believe BB&T is setting a trading bottom.

They have indicated they are in the market to do a $3b or so deal for a bank (seem to be targeting the Midwest currently).  They just sold $1b in bonds (a warchest?).  I will have a limit order in for this bank  somewhere around $26.75-26.85 to take a small position (as a trade).

Here is the chart:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and use stops.

comments and outlook 03-02

Yesterday I questioned on one of the charts if I had the bottoms correctly positioned.  Well today's action proved I should have listened to myself and repositioned the cycles.  I have done that as my call for today was a total miss.  I have now repositoned my interpretation of the positioning of these cycles. 

The 11 day, 5.5+ day cycle, 2.75 day cycle are now down.  So tomorrow should continue down.  I have a target of 1290-1300 for tomorrow.

Here are the charts:

GL trades.  Do your own analysis. 

OIL watch update 03-01

I sold my position in the OIL etf last week at $26.70.  Tried to reenter later , but got stopped out with a small loss.  So I am sitting on the sidelines watching.  We all are aware of the events in the Mid East that could affect the price of oil.  If things quiet down oil could fall.  It things heat up oil could rise.  I have no idea how to predict these things.

So, I fall back on TA and what it projects.  There is a huge gap that is unfilled.  OIL seems to want to pullback.  Projections indicate we should have set a top (sell signals from CCI and channel envelopes).  Based on the cycles it looks like OIL should pull back the next 8-10 days into mid-Mar.  So I will be watching for a new/better entry point for OIL. 

Here is a current chart:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.

Comments and outlook for 03-01

Well, it was another day of "guess the open".  We popped at the open (not in my projection), drifted down (which was my projection) and closed with a move up.  I guess you could say the bias for most of the day was down (except the open and close).  So partially right, but not a great call.

My "guess the open" for tomorrow - is open higher.  The bias for the day should be up and we probably break above 1330 on S&P and close near the day's high.

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.

The long and short of it - outlook for 2-28

We have looked at the relationship of cycles as long as the KWave (about 60 years) to as short as about 11 days.  We have explained how each cycle is a factor of a longer cycle (or a longer cycle is a multiple of a shorter cycle.  Now we have not covered all the possible cycles (IE 1 year cycle), but I am sure most could be related to those cycles we have covered as a factor or multiple of a cycle we have covered.  I leave that to you if you desire to pursue it.

But, what about the cycles less than 11 days?  The 11 day cycle is probably 11.22-11.50 days in length.  So half of that is 5.5+ days.  And half of 5.5+ days is 2.75+ days.  Do such cycles exist.  See for yourself:

You will observe we have the 11+ day cycle down through Monday. The 5+  and 2.75+ day cycles are also down Monday.  This implies Monday should have a down bias, but Tue/Wed and maybe Thur should not.

GL traders.  Do your own analysis - the above is the opinion of the author and the author may have misinterpreted the placement of 1 or more cycles..

The week ahead 02-28

Looking at the near term we see that we received short term buy signals late last week for the CCI and the envelope channels.  I expect that signal is good for the next 3 or so trading days until the 11 day cycle tops.  The we will have the 11 day and 34 day cycles down thru the remainder of the week. 

So if you have a short term swing trade on watch the market closely for a turn before Thursday (and tighten your stops by mid-week).  Overall we should see upside bias (target under 1230 - see chart) first part of the week and then a reversal last couple of days of the week.  Mid-week may present an opportunity to buy an inverse ETF?

Here is a chart:

GL traders, proceed with care and do your own analysis.