I have noticed that recessions generally start when the economic numbers are at highs. Many people tend to project today's numbers into the future - which is why they are surprised when the economy takes a tumble. ECRI predicted a recession by the second quarter of 2012 back at the end of September. They have an excellent record in calling recessions. Now I could show you a lot of charts that claim to predict the future.
Instead I am going to show you one chart. It is not some prediction but shows the "data" (not some prediction) and is referred to a coincident indicator. It is on the verge of falling into an area that normally precedes or coincides a recession. Here is the chart:
You decide, recession or not.
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