01-04 January outlook

Time to take a look at January.  My December outlook was definitely too pessimistic.  Hope I do better on January.  The 41 month cycle topped mid November and is down.  The two year cycle is down and should bottom second half of April.  The 1 year cycle is up the first 2.5 weeks of January (1/19 top?) before it turns down.  So by late January we have 3 long cycle down.  May give us some downward bias the last 1.5weeks of January,  For now though the 1 year cycle seems dominant as it pushes higher to a top.

So looking at the longer cycles it appears upward bias the first 2 and half weeks of January and a downward bias the last week and half of January.  Here is a SPX chart showing the longer cycles:

Now to look at the shorter swing cycles.  The 20 week cycle is down and should bottom next week (1/11?).  The 34td (trading days) cycle should bottom also next week (1/13?). the 22td cycle is up and should top next week (1/14?).  So two cycles up, 2 cycles down - they largely offset.  Maybe a slight bias down.  Not enough to give us much dowside action though the first part of January.  Here is the SPX showing the Swing cycles:

So, January is mostly sideways (a trader's market).  Maybe up to 1280+  by  1 year cycle top (1/19?).  Buy the dips of 1-2% and sell the pops.  Don't get greedy expecting big moves either way.  GL traders