03-30-2012 Martin Armstrong

There are few if any experts thought more highly of than Martin Armstrong.  Here are recent thoughts from him:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/24880/martin-armstrong-on-the-sovereign-debt-crisis

GL readers

03-30-2012 Charles Nenner speaking out

Been a while (several months) since I have seen anything from Nenner.  Now there are multiple articles in March.  His view seems to be the stock market tops by mid-April  and heads down.  I cannot argue with that and have talked about the 42 month Kitchen cycle which bottomed in March 2009 and should bottom around mid Sept 2012.  With longer cycles you tend to get the most downside in about the last 1/8th of the cycle  (1/8 x 42 = 5.25 months.  October less 5 months is April, or time to head south).

Nenner also says he got out of gold last year around $1900, but it is now time to buy gold (and silver) with a target of $2500 on gold ($50+ on silver).  But instead of me telling you - read for yourself - here are the links:

http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-2500-2012-3

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnavin/2012/03/25/an-interview-with-technical-analyst-charles-nenner/?feed=rss_home

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/market-rally-peak-next-month-charles-nenner-150005109.html

Gl traders

03-25-2012 observations

We said last week we expected the market to flatten and then turn down.  I would say that is close to what happened.   This week we expect the market to grudgingly give some ground.  Since it is end of month and end of quarter we may see some portfolio adjustments.  A fund that has seen APPL (IBM) exceed 5 % of the portfolio because of its rise may have to trim back under 5% (if they limit any one position to 5%).  So we could see some weakness in high fliers if this happens.  Not sure to what extent this could be an issue, but if high fliers give ground then the market as a whole will give ground.  Just something to keep in mind.

Longer term is operation "Twist".  QE1 and QE2 both boosted equities in the spring of 2010 and 2011.  TWIST seems to be doing the same this year as the FED sells short term bonds and buys longer term bonds as it attempts to suppress longer term rates.  This has been working, but 10 year rates have started to move up, so maybe the FED is out of ammo.  Seems they are running out of short term bonds to sell.    I suspect we may see a repeat of a sell off as the FED operation "Twist" comes to an end same as we did at the end of QE1 and QE2.  And "Twist" may be coming to an end sooner than expected - which could lead to a market downturn as early as April/May  (there is some indication of that in the cycles). 

Here is the SPX:

 GL traders, have a profitable week.

03-21-2012 Charts from Victor

Hi Inlet,

So I have an 80/40/20/10 day cycle chart here and it seems to be in line up to a year back.  I guess my question is how valid is this?  I noticed that you used to reference it but have switched to a Wall Cycle and it now lines up differently because the periods are different lengths

tx,

v
 Note: Victor - I inverted colors on your charts to try and make them a bit more readable....  Here are the charts:

Second chart:

Victor - BTW - nice job on the charts.  To try and answer your question - I have no license that says my interpretation will always be correct.  Your interpretation may be the correct one.    I am just glad you are taking the time and interest to do you own analysis.  I try and find the interpretation that bests fits the data.  I may or may not find that best fit. 

Your 80 day length closely tracks T-Theory  (see blogs I follow - Terry Laundry - he uses 16 weeks and 5 x 16 = 80). 

Appreciate your input.

Update: For clarity here is Victor's Chart  #1 reproduced on StockCharts.  Any errors are strictly mine:

03-21-2012 observations

Not much of a change from last post.  I had speculated a 1410 high (we got 1412+ I believe).  I also speculated we would get a flattening out (with today's pullback that may be happening).  After that we should see a bit of a pullback (under 1400 - maybe 1375).  Not the time for a huge pullback yet - got to get all the sheep rounded up for the shearing first?

Here is an updated picture:

GL traders  

03-16-2012 observations

We broke above 1400 target.  Seems though the market is losing upside momentum.  The DOW has been up 7 (or is it 8) days in a row and runs like this are rare and overdue a rest.  I suspect we could see 1408-1410 as a top.

In looking at the charts is see once we reach this juncture of cycles though the market tends to go flat for 4-5 days.  Here is the SPX showing this:

GL traders

03-14-2012 outlook

A week ago I told you I believed the Qtr Wall cycle had bottomed and we would see a drift up for about 2 weeks.  The move up was much sharper than I thought and reached levels higher than I anticipated in such a short period.  It now looks as if we may be reaching a top looking at the 25TD DPO (1400?).  Tomorrow should give us a clearer picture.  It could go somewhat higher as it is still 3-5 TDs to the time that the qtr Wall should top.

Here is the outlook:

GL traders.  May buy more RWM if it breaks below $26.