outlook for 11-01-2011

I commented yesterday: "The pull back may start Monday as we have two shorter cycles topping mid day.  I suspect end of month window dressing is over (or nearly so) and the first  week of November is an ideal time for a pullback.  So I expect Monday could be a down day.".  That appears to have been the case.  Not much has changed from yesterday.

I looked at a couple of bloggers and they seem to think we see a bounce tomorrow.  I look at the cycles on the charts and can't agree.  All the short cycles from the 2.8TD to 34TD cycles should be down tomorrow if my interpretation is correct.  So to me this indicates possibly a sharp sell off tomorrow.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and be careful.

Spiral dates calendar for November

The calendar shows a broad top for the week coming up (a turn down?) and two peaks around Thanksgiving (expected low turn).

http://spiraldates.com/2011/charts/scores_1011.png

FYI - there is also a Bradley turn date around Nov 22 which correlates to the second tops on the Spiral calendar.

outlook for 10-31-2011 and the week

Lots of news the past week:

1) A Plan in Europe, but not a final plan it appears.  Partial "kick the can" down the road as the plan seems insufficient to address all the problems in the Eurozone.
2) Earnings seem to maintain a positive tilt as companies continue to moderate hiring and try to increase efficiency.  Probably not a lot of productivity left to be gotten without some heavy investment in capital equipment.
3) GDP was better than expected.  Not something to get too excited about as these numbers will be revised (down is my guess).
4) Local and state government layoffs are offsetting the moderate pace of business hiring so unemployment continues to be flat at high levels.
5) Foreclosures may be increasing, but they are already at high levels.
6) Consumer spending was up, but savings rate was down.  It appears consumers are using savings to spend.

I am sure you can think of other items.  Over all the environment is mixed, but about as good as can be expected.  With Europe off the table temporarily (or so it appears) and earnings winding down I expect attention to shift to the super committee.  Last rumor I heard is there is a push for $1.5 trillion in tax increases and an equal amount in spending cuts.  The problem with this (as I see it) is tax increases are aways now and cuts are always in the future.  Are we supposed to be so stupid we think this is a solution?

So with things about as good as can be expected a pull back should not be unexpected.  So we look at the cycles and it appears we have several cycles bottoming toward the end of next week.  This could give us a short (but severe) pull back.  Since we are up about 200 points in October a quick pullback of 100 points (50%) would not be out of reason.

The pull back may start Monday as we have two shorter cycles topping mid day.  I suspect end of month window dressing is over (or nearly so) and the first  week of November is an ideal time for a pullback.  So I expect Monday could be a down day.

Here are the SPX swing cycles as I interpret them:

GL traders.  As always - do your own analysis and be careful.

outlook 10-28-2011

In September the shorter cycles (5.6 and 11.2TD) seemed to exert the most influence in the market and we got quick moves up and down.  In October that influence seemed to shift to the longer (22 and 34TD) cycles.  If I have it right those 2 cycles have now topped.  Will influence continue to shift to longer cycles.  If it does then the 20 week (Wall) cycle should become more dominant.  Not saying this will happen but speculating it might.  If it does then we could see a down trending market for about 8 weeks into the third week of December as the 20 week cycle should have topped by mid October.

The Europeans seem to have come up with a partial fix, but are also kicking the can down the road.  Earnings season is almost over.  So I expect we will start hearing more about the Congressional super committee.  I am not optimistic about the results coming out of this group.  I hope I am wrong and they do some much needed budget cutting.

In my estimation most of the cycles should be down today (did the 34TD cycle top yesterday?) and therefore expect we will end down at the close of the day.  Here is the SPX swing cycles:

Gl traders.  Do your own analysis.

10-27-2011

Sorry I was unable to offer comments the past few days.  Things happen in life that require you drop everything and deal with them.  Reviewing the news the past few days it seems the news out of Europe is about as good as can be expected.  Also, earning reports will start to wind down as we get into November.  So I wonder what will drive the market the next few weeks.  Seems to me it is about as good as we can expect at this time.

Looking at the data I would opine the longer swing cycles have been dominant in the market in October.  I believe I mentioned the 34TD cycle should top this week.  With the open today we well could be setting a top now.   We will see.

Here is the SPX with my interpretation of the cycles:

Gl traders.  My long positions are largely offsetting my "wrong" short positions.  Not a way to make money, but it protects you when your analysis fails you.  So - do your own analysis because I guarantee there will be times I fail to properly interpret the data.

10-24-2011

Who knows what we will see out of Europe by Monday.  Friday may have been the topping of the 34TD cycle.  The only thing I am sure of is the higher we go the neared we are to a top.

Here are the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.

Note:  Due to a personal situation I will be on the road (out of town) early next week and will not be posting the first part of the week.

It all ends in a week so don't worry.

Current Events have been Carey's focus during this year of 2011 when the Mayan Day of Change will usher in the long-awaited New Creation Cycle. Carey believes this will occur during the month of October, soon after the Final and Irreparable Collapse of both the Stock Market and the current global financial system.


http://www.2011-2012kencareystarseed.com/announcements/#axzz1bNlMXEJe