outlook for 09-12-2011

As I told you Friday the cycles should be down and the market should end up "red".  It did.  As to last week the market was down, but down less than I thought it would be.

Today it appears we will start off red.  We have a couple of shorter cycles now up so we will have some pressure building to the upside.  Will this impact by end of the day?  I doubt it will, but Tuesday or Wednesday I would not be surprised if we got a upside push.  So I believe the bias today will be down.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Hope to close out my RWM and QID positions today.

outlook for 09-09-2011

Yesterday's call was fairly accurate, up early with a down bias into the close.

The short cycles are down, so we should see a red day.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders

Note:  I have weekend plans so I may not post outlooks until late Sunday or Monday morning.

outlook for 09-08-2011

Darn am I red faced.  I was expecting a sinker and got a fast ball today.  Hard to be much more wrong than I was today.  Oh well, I had a few good days and I was due a loser.  The short cycles seemed to have built up some pressure and exploded up today.

Maybe a bit more upside in the morning (test 1208 level?).  But nearly ever cycle is down or ready to turn down. The only cycle up all day is the 11.2TD cycle (assuming I have the placement properly).  So we get a bit of up bias early and then sell down.  What will be the trigger.  Doesn't Benny have a conference in the morning?  Maybe Benny will say something the market doesn't like.  We will see.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

 GL traders. 

outlook for 09-07-2011

I said that the bias today should be down and the day would be volatile...  Check.  I opined by the end of the day we could see a 15 point decline on S&P.  We saw a bit less than that - 50% credit.  Overall not a bad call for the day.

Tomorrow (probably before the open) we should get a ruling from the German courts on the constitutionality of bailing out other EU countries.  Probably will add more confusion than clarity to this issue. 

May get a little continuation of the end of day rally (close the S&P gap?) and then continue the move down.  The 2.8TD has topped or should top early in the day.  So that leaves the 5.6TD  and 11.2TD cycles up.  The 22TD cycle, the 34TD cycle and the longer 67TD cycle are down.  So the bias tomorrow should be down and we should have another red close (10-15 points?).

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.   still holding my short ETFs (QID and RWM).     

outlook for 09-06-2011

It appears the 22TD cycle has topped as we were expecting in this time frame.  So that means the 67TD (65-70 TDs) is down, the 34TD cycle . the 22TD cycle is down.  This provides a lot of head wind for the shorter cycles this week.

The 11.2TD cycle, the 5.6TD cycle and 2.8TD cycle have turned up.  Normally we would expect an upside bias with these 3 shorter cycles up, but any up side pressure from these shorter cycles is apt to be over whelmed by the longer cycles down.  So Tuesday could be a volatile day, but at the end of the day the S&P is apt to be down 15 points or more

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.

Outlook for week 09-06-2011

I said last week up into mid week and down last part of the week was my outlook.  The week was falt as I opined it would be.

There are several things that could happen next week.  The German court could declare the bailouts of other Euro countries unconstitutional.  The Italian parliament is to vote on a new austerity program and seem to be backing away from prior commitments (lots and lots of amendments). Then Barry has his speech on jobs (more of the same?).  Any (or all of these) could negatively impact the market.  These are the known unknowns.  Then there is the unknown unknowns.

The cycles seem to anticipate one or more of these things will affect the market negatively.  The 67TD cycle (65-70 TDs) is down.  The 34TD cycle is down.  It appears the 22TD cycle has topped.  Shorter cycles may inhibit the downside at times but I believe the over all direction is down next week.  On average I believe we could see as much as 20 point a day down on the S&P (70-80 points for the 4 days) and that we possibly could test the 1100 level during the week.

Here is the SPX and these longer cycles:

GL traders.  Have a good Labor Day.

Outlook for 09-02-2011

I opined that today would be flat and it was a good portion of the day, but it finally gave way to down side pressure.  According to my analysis (and best guess) the 22TD cycle should be topping.  A late sell off like today lends some proof that a topping is probably taking place (and may have already happened even though I have the 22TD cycle top as Tues after Labor Day).  I guess the question is - do we attempt one more upside try?

So we have the 34TD cycle down, the 11.2TD cycle is down, the 5.6TD cycle is down.  The 22TD cycle is up (may have topped or is topping) and the 2.8TD cycle is up.  On balance it appears the bias should be down tomorrow.  Given tomorrow we get monthly employment data for Aug and it is expected to be "not so good",  I believe it would take a big up side surprise to over ride this bias.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  My RWM position was green at the end of the day.

Bonus info (see http://www.decisionpoint.com/ for additional information):

Always consider other sources in your analysis.